The Singularity is Near: 20 Experts predict the date of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

(spoiler alert: the average prediction is 2059)

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) AGI is a hypothetical type of artificial intelligence that possesses the ability to learn and perform any intellectual task that a human can. This includes, but is not limited to, the following capabilities:

Reasoning: AGI would be able to understand and apply logical principles, analyze information, and draw conclusions.

Problem-solving: AGI would be able to identify problems, develop solutions, and implement them effectively.

Learning: AGI would be able to acquire new knowledge and skills through experience and interaction with the world.

Creativity: AGI would be able to generate new ideas, concepts, and solutions that are not simply based on existing knowledge.

Adaptability: AGI would be able to adjust its behavior and goals in response to new information and changing circumstances.

Social intelligence: AGI would be able to understand and respond to the emotions and intentions of others, and to navigate social situations effectively.

Good in theory.  AGI is still a theoretical concept, and it is not clear when or if it will ever be achieved. However, many researchers believe that it is only a matter of time before AGI becomes a reality.

Here are some of the key characteristics of AGI:

  • General-purpose intelligence: AGI would not be limited to a specific domain or task but would be able to apply its intelligence to a wide range of problems.
  • Self-awareness: AGI would be aware of its own existence and its place in the world.
  • Open-ended learning: AGI would be able to learn and adapt throughout its lifetime, without being limited by its initial programming.
  • Emergence: AGI would exhibit complex and unpredictable behavior that cannot be fully explained by its individual components.

Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?  The potential benefits of AGI are vast, and it has the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives. However, there are also potential risks associated with AGI, such as the possibility that it could become uncontrollable or harmful. As we continue to research and develop AGI, it is important to consider both the potential benefits and risks, and to develop safeguards to ensure that AGI is used for good.

20 experts predict the date AGI will occur

  1. Vernor Vinge (Computer Scientist and Author): 2030-2050. (Source: “The Technological Singularity: Technological Singularity and Its Implications for the Future of Humanity”)
  2. Ray Kurzweil (Futurist and Investor): 2029. (Source: “The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology”)
  3. Stuart Russell (Computer Scientist and Author): 2040-2050. (Source: “Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control”)
  4. Yann LeCun (Computer Scientist and AI Pioneer): 2040-2050. (Source: “AI for Everyone: A Guide to Artificial Intelligence”)
  5. Demis Hassabis (Neuroscientist and AI Entrepreneur): 2050-2100. (Source: “Mind and Machine: Neural Networks and the Quest for Artificial Intelligence”)
  6. Tim Urban (Blogger and Writer): 2040-2050. (Source: “The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence”)
  7. Eliezer Yudkowsky (Rationalist and AI Safety Researcher): 2060-2100. (Source: “Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk”)
  8. Melanie Mitchell (Computer Scientist and Author): 2060-2100. (Source: “The Recursion: Complexity, Representation, and the Power of Ideas”)
  9. Andrew Ng (Computer Scientist and Entrepreneur): 2070-2200. (Source: “AI for Everyone: A Guide to Artificial Intelligence”)
  10. Gary Marcus (Psychologist and AI Critic): 2100-2200. (Source: “Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust”)
  1. Rodney Brooks (Computer Scientist and Roboticist): 2200+. (Source: “Can We Build a Better Human: The Future of Our Species”)
  2. Paul Allen (Computer Scientist and Entrepreneur):No specific prediction. (Source: “Ideas that Matter: A Conversation with Paul Allen and Kai-Fu Lee”)
  3. Nick Bostrom (Philosopher and Author): 2040-2050. (Source: “Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies”)
  4. Dario Floreano (Computer Scientist and Roboticist): 2060-2100. (Source: “Unsolved! The AI Mysteries We Don’t Know How to Crack”)
  5. Jürgen Schmidhuber (Computer Scientist and AI Researcher): 2040-2050. (Source: “Goedel, Metamathematics and Physics: Goedel’s Theorem in the Physical Universe”)
  6. Yoshua Bengio (Computer Scientist and AI Researcher): 2050-2100. (Source: “Deep Learning”)
  7. Jeff Hawkins (Neuroscientist and Entrepreneur): 2035-2040. (Source: “On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain Will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines”)
  8. Pedro Domingos (Computer Scientist and Author): 2040-2050. (Source: “The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World”)</;li>
  9. Erik Brynjolfsson (Economist and AI Researcher): 2030-2040. (Source: “The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies”)
  10. Fei-Fei Li (Computer Scientist and AI Researcher): 2050-2100. (Source: “Seeing Like a Machine: Learning from Images and Videos”)

Average predicted year: 2059

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